## Decision Theory and Bayes's Rule

## Decision theory

The utility equation

Measuring information

Cost of gathering information

A Bayesian method

## Expected Value

The

*expected value*of a uniformly distributed set of numbers is the average of its values`E(S) = sum S / |S|`

More generally, the expected value is the centroid

`E(S) = sum [e in S] e pr(e in S)`

This reduces to the average when elements are equally probable

## The Utility Equation

Sometimes you need to pick a best action

*a*from a set of choices*A*When you know what effect

*e(a)*each action will have, and you know the value*v(e)*of each effect, this is easy: just pick`argmax [a in A] v(e(a))`

But the world is uncertain. Sometimes all you know is the probability of various action effects

*pr(e|a)*You might evaluate the utility

*U*of an action in terms of*expected*effect value`U(a) = E(v(a)) = sum [e in e(a)] v(e) pr(e|a)`

You can now just maximize again

`argmax [a in A] U(a)`

## Bayes's Rule

Given

evidence

*E*with*prior probability**pr(E)*hypothesis

*H*with pp*pr(H)*probability

*pr(E|H)*of the evidence given that the hypothesis holds

We want

- probability
*pr(H|E)*that the hypothesis holds given the evidence

- probability
By Bayes's Rule

*pr(H|E) = pr(E|H) pr(H) / pr(E)*

## The Medical Example

H = "You have Glaubner's Disease"

E = "Reaper's Test is positive"Rare disease:

*pr(H) = 1e-6*Low false positive rate:

*pr(E|¬H) = 1e-4*Perfect false negative rate:

*pr(E|H) = 1*`pr(H|E) = pr(H) pr(E|H) / pr(E) = pr(H) / pr(E∧H ∨ E∧¬H) = pr(H) / (pr(E|¬H) pr(¬H) + pr(E|H) pr(H)) = 1e-6 / (1e-4 × (1-1e-6) + 1e-6) ~= 1e-6 / 1e-4 = 1e-2 = 0.01`

IRL the false negative rate will be nonzero too, so you will not learn a ton from the test either way

Been there

## Bayesian Belief Networks

Bayes Net (BBN, influence diagram) : indicate which priors and conditionals have significant influence in practice

`Cloudy / \ Sprinkler Rain \ / Wet Grass`

Usually reason one of two ways:

causal/top-down:

`p(W|C) = p(W|S∨R) = 1 - p(W|¬S) p(¬S|C) p(C) × p(W|¬R) p(¬R|C) p(C)`

diagnostic/bottom-up:

*p(C|W)*

Polytrees: special case for easy computation

Problem: everything depends on everything else

Need to know impossible number of prior and conditional probabilities to conclude anything

Maybe

*learn*probabilities?

## Is Your Probabilistic Model Meaningful?

Difference between 0.5 and "don't know" and "don't care"

MYCIN and probabilities

*vs*"likelihoods"Consequence of Cox's Theorem: under reasonable assumptions, any labeling of logical sentences with real numbers will be consistent with probability

Measurement issues; numeric issues